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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of May 27, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years 32 41 42 43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher 18 19 20 19 23 21 22 21 15 22 24
Exceeded High 14 15 17 17 17 18 16 16 10 16 15
Scenario Percentage 78% 79% 85% 89% 74% 86% 73% 76% 67% 73% 63%
Avg Max Increase 12.18% 19.46% 21.69% 11.87% 10.22% 11.80% 9.46% 11.55% 21.98% 14.87% 7.36%
Max Increase 39.42% 76.66% 69.44% 51.45% 28.43% 26.42% 18.98% 53.06% 79.61% 43.40% 23.04%
Avg Days To Max Increase 20 18 15 18 20 20 15 16 21 13 7
Avg Max Decline -1.98% -3.25% -1.23% -3.30% -1.51% -2.57% -1.27% -2.59% -1.69% -1.38% -0.51%
Max Decline -6.63% -8.92% -4.31% -18.49% -7.25% -10.23% -4.45% -10.53% -6.21% -3.28% -3.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline 13 7 8 10 5 7 5 13 6 5 1
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action Yes No     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years 32 41 42 43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower 14 22 21 24 22 24 23 24 30 23 21
Penetrated Low 8 20 17 17 18 22 18 18 25 14 11
Scenario Percentage 57% 91% 81% 71% 82% 92% 78% 75% 83% 61% 52%
Avg Max Decline 8.91% 7.01% 9.84% 6.07% 6.77% 7.36% 7.06% 6.68% 6.40% 8.40% 14.77%
Max Decline 12.59% 17.22% 25.30% 16.81% 13.44% 19.59% 19.01% 22.84% 30.93% 24.16% 57.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline 21 23 20 16 18 17 19 14 16 12 12
Avg Max Increase -1.83% -2.00% -2.56% -2.92% -3.59% -1.55% -3.69% -3.45% -3.00% -1.81% -3.84%
Max Increase -4.58% -5.78% -12.50% -10.09% -13.21% -6.45% -17.82% -9.66% -13.99% -4.52% -15.93%
Avg Days to Max Increase 5 11 9 12 9 5 10 8 11 5 -61
2004 Contract Condition     Yes Yes              
Action     Yes No              
High 20.95 22.45 22.05 21.88 20.80 24.60 26.65 27.25 28.60 30.37 34.45
Low 20.05 20.70 20.85 19.00 19.00 20.35 24.15 24.46 26.88 27.70 28.88
Close/Last 20.75 21.43 21.15 19.01 20.75 24.57 25.60 27.00 27.84 29.27 34.19