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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jan 16, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years 32 38 40 42 43 44 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher 20 27 23 20 20 20 22 21 23 23 13
Exceeded High 19 27 19 16 17 17 16 18 17 15 9
Scenario Percentage 95% 100% 83% 80% 85% 85% 73% 86% 74% 65% 69%
Avg Max Increase 7.86% 9.25% 12.26% 18.95% 22.20% 11.93% 11.42% 12.68% 9.69% 10.49% 7.48%
Max Increase 17.89% 35.80% 41.28% 76.18% 73.84% 53.60% 29.96% 32.54% 20.47% 26.54% 12.54%
Avg Days To Max Increase 17 18 19 19 16 17 20 20 14 11 11
Avg Max Decline -0.82% -1.70% -2.21% -3.28% -1.41% -3.18% -1.84% -2.74% -1.14% -1.54% -1.41%
Max Decline -5.25% -6.08% -7.76% -8.93% -5.39% -18.78% -7.29% -11.08% -4.43% -4.97% -6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline 8 8 12 7 8 8 6 4 5 9 5
2004 Contract Condition Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action Yes Yes Yes No     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years 32 38 40 42 43 44 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower 12 10 17 22 23 24 23 24 22 21 32
Penetrated Low 7 9 12 20 18 17 18 21 17 16 20
Scenario Percentage 58% 90% 71% 91% 78% 71% 78% 88% 77% 76% 63%
Avg Max Decline 5.24% 5.80% 8.42% 7.41% 10.46% 6.37% 7.39% 7.91% 7.27% 5.73% 13.04%
Max Decline 14.48% 10.92% 13.33% 17.45% 25.87% 17.16% 14.58% 21.35% 20.13% 11.31% 74.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline 15 21 19 23 21 17 17 19 20 11 11
Avg Max Increase -2.28% -2.92% -1.67% -2.00% -2.49% -3.10% -3.51% -1.59% -4.11% -3.00% -1.04%
Max Increase -4.32% -6.13% -4.38% -5.60% -13.28% -9.84% -13.90% -7.30% -19.53% -9.68% -5.94%
Avg Days to Max Increase 6 20 5 11 7 12 8 4 10 5 4
2004 Contract Condition         Yes Yes          
Action         Yes No          
High 20.25 20.70 21.22 22.65 22.22 21.98 20.85 24.80 27.07 27.44 28.76
Low 19.50 19.78 20.30 20.80 21.01 18.91 18.92 20.42 24.40 24.59 27.03
Close/Last 19.93 20.48 20.91 21.58 21.30 18.92 20.83 24.62 25.73 27.31 27.87