MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Australian Dollar(CME) as of Apr 30, 2006
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	8	8	8	13	14	16	19	19	19	19	19
Closed Higher	5	6	4	6	9	8	12	8	9	8	12
Exceeded High	5	4	4	5	8	6	11	8	7	7	7
Scenario Percentage	100%	67%	100%	83%	89%	75%	92%	100%	78%	88%	58%
Avg Max Increase	4.49%	5.77%	3.17%	4.23%	4.15%	5.57%	4.46%	2.66%	3.05%	2.88%	1.93%
Max Increase	6.70%	8.30%	6.67%	5.30%	9.71%	9.56%	9.28%	6.14%	6.46%	5.75%	2.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase	23	16	14	16	19	21	18	11	14	14	11
Avg Max Decline	-0.06%	-0.36%	-0.67%	-0.10%	-0.71%	-0.85%	-0.63%	-0.59%	-0.75%	-0.82%	-0.61%
Max Decline	-1.21%	-3.21%	-3.03%	-0.83%	-3.23%	-1.82%	-4.12%	-1.97%	-2.00%	-1.61%	-2.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	6	12	4	12	4	4	6	7	9	3
2006 Contract Condition				Yes			Yes	Yes
Action				No			Yes

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Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	8	8	8	13	14	16	19	19	19	19	19
Closed Lower	3	2	4	7	5	8	7	11	10	11	7
Penetrated Low	3	2	1	4	4	6	7	9	5	9	4
Scenario Percentage	100%	100%	25%	57%	80%	75%	100%	82%	50%	82%	57%
Avg Max Decline	3.54%	4.06%	2.66%	5.51%	5.33%	5.01%	4.75%	2.43%	5.61%	3.84%	7.64%
Max Decline	7.59%	7.05%	2.66%	11.67%	8.85%	10.15%	10.19%	6.31%	11.68%	9.88%	18.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline	20	18	8	16	19	15	20	13	13	15	8
Avg Max Increase	-1.47%	-2.38%	-0.02%	-0.47%	-0.64%	-0.49%	-1.40%	-1.20%	-1.18%	-1.50%	-0.66%
Max Increase	-1.54%	-4.75%	-0.02%	-0.93%	-0.89%	-1.48%	-2.27%	-4.92%	-2.41%	-6.02%	-2.91%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	22	2	2	8	10	11	9	12	10	3
2006 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Not Yet
High	75.47	73.74	75.06	75.33	75.03	74.61	75.80	76.05
Low	74.01	72.18	71.89	73.59	73.35	70.29	71.39	75.82
Close/Last	74.03	73.37	72.93	75.33	74.06	71.49	75.80	75.97