MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Australian Dollar(CME) as of Jul 29, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	6	6	7	12	14	14	16	18	18	18	18
Closed Higher		3	3	8	9	8	7	11	10	11	8
Exceeded High		2	3	7	8	6	6	9	7	10	6
Scenario Percentage		67%	100%	88%	89%	75%	86%	82%	70%	91%	75%
Avg Max Increase		5.78%	5.63%	3.88%	3.94%	3.43%	3.79%	4.42%	5.27%	4.24%	1.40%
Max Increase		9.57%	8.43%	7.04%	8.54%	7.74%	5.56%	9.06%	9.60%	7.57%	2.39%
Avg Days To Max Increase		29	13	18	17	18	14	23	22	10	5
Avg Max Decline		-1.68%	-0.13%	-0.41%	-0.61%	-0.93%	-0.24%	-0.67%	-0.92%	-0.41%	0.06%
Max Decline		-1.82%	-0.62%	-1.35%	-3.20%	-3.50%	-0.97%	-3.24%	-1.83%	-1.71%	-0.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	3	9	4	11	4	10	8	2	2
2004 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years	6	6	7	12	14	14	16	18	18	18	18
Closed Lower	6	3	4	4	5	5	9	7	8	7	10
Penetrated Low	6	1	2	4	3	3	5	5	6	7	7
Scenario Percentage	100%	33%	50%	100%	60%	60%	56%	71%	75%	100%	70%
Avg Max Decline	4.83%	9.94%	6.12%	3.02%	3.82%	3.01%	5.15%	4.43%	5.13%	4.65%	5.54%
Max Decline	8.73%	9.94%	6.48%	7.62%	7.24%	4.74%	11.76%	9.22%	10.25%	10.03%	24.34%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	25	24	21	18	13	16	15	16	13	8
Avg Max Increase	-1.79%	0.07%	-1.21%	-1.34%	-2.14%	-0.21%	-0.72%	-0.70%	-0.70%	-1.32%	0.20%
Max Increase	-5.47%	0.07%	-1.76%	-1.55%	-4.82%	-0.76%	-1.15%	-1.13%	-1.82%	-2.29%	-0.51%
Avg Days to Max Increase	10	1	9	7	16	2	2	6	16	6	2
2004 Contract Condition	Yes								Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes								Yes	Yes	Yes
High	65.98	64.17	66.20	69.07	70.80	73.93	76.80	78.74	76.72	76.35	73.10
Low	62.64	62.10	61.89	66.03	68.24	71.10	74.35	74.40	72.05	70.87	68.11
Close/Last	62.82	63.04	66.20	69.07	70.76	73.76	75.13	76.37	75.89	71.84	71.24