MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Australian Dollar(CME) as of May 28, 2004
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	5	5	6	14	14	15	17	17	17	17	18
Closed Higher	4	2	4	4	8	8	10	11	10	8	11
Exceeded High	4	2	3	4	7	7	9	9	8	8	8
Scenario Percentage	100%	100%	75%	100%	88%	88%	90%	82%	80%	100%	73%
Avg Max Increase	4.74%	3.00%	2.41%	2.62%	3.57%	3.65%	4.59%	3.89%	4.16%	2.91%	2.04%
Max Increase	7.72%	4.57%	5.30%	5.49%	10.01%	8.86%	8.20%	8.64%	9.59%	5.55%	2.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase	15	4	7	12	17	15	18	16	20	10	9
Avg Max Decline	0.06%	0.56%	0.00%	-0.56%	-0.65%	-0.70%	-0.47%	-0.95%	-1.13%	-0.43%	0.16%
Max Decline	-0.40%	0.42%	-1.09%	-1.19%	-1.79%	-2.21%	-2.12%	-4.07%	-3.76%	-1.04%	-0.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline	4	6	4	9	5	10	7	5	9	3	2
2004 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

Copyright © 2003 Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Some data provided by Prophetfinance.com

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years	5	5	6	14	14	15	17	17	17	17	18
Closed Lower	1	3	2	10	6	7	7	6	7	9	7
Penetrated Low	1	2	2	9	4	4	6	5	4	5	4
Scenario Percentage	100%	67%	100%	90%	67%	57%	86%	83%	57%	56%	57%
Avg Max Decline	2.68%	0.84%	8.28%	4.14%	6.05%	4.33%	2.89%	3.15%	4.35%	4.56%	2.32%
Max Decline	2.68%	1.29%	10.36%	8.62%	11.07%	6.46%	7.61%	7.25%	6.27%	10.19%	6.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline	17	7	16	16	29	23	16	18	13	9	5
Avg Max Increase	-2.19%	-1.65%	-1.68%	-1.27%	-0.62%	-1.11%	-1.45%	-1.72%	-1.50%	-0.85%	-0.07%
Max Increase	-2.19%	-4.56%	-2.41%	-5.49%	-2.39%	-1.84%	-1.99%	-4.96%	-5.09%	-1.29%	-0.70%
Avg Days to Max Increase	5	7	12	9	13	6	10	18	10	2	1
2004 Contract Condition				Yes
Action				Yes
High	60.90	64.00	65.60	66.55	64.76	67.39	69.98	71.70	74.75	77.69	79.62
Low	57.85	61.20	63.91	63.20	62.68	62.47	66.66	68.90	71.75	74.77	75.18
Close/Last	60.90	63.64	65.60	63.38	63.61	66.83	69.75	71.51	74.55	75.97	77.22